“Kim Jong expressed at the meeting his firm belief in the direction of the Korean revolution. And confidence in its invincibility,” state media reported Thursday.
Kim Jong Un fired missiles at a record pace in 2022, lowered the threshold for using nuclear weapons. And thumbed his nose at global sanctions. It is likely to heat up even more in the coming year.
Kim Jong is expected to outline his plans for 2023 this week as his ruling Workers’ Party wraps up a major end-of-year policy-making meeting. The North Korean leader said during the rally that he would strengthen the military. But details will not be known until state media publishes a report on the meeting on New Year’s Day. Last year’s dispatches amounted to about 8,000 words.
With little threat of new sanctions and plans to develop more weapons, including drones, submarines. And missiles already underway, Kim Jong will likely try to hone his ability to launch a credible nuclear strike against the United States and its allies.
Kim’s moves in recent months signal a broader shift from the country’s long-term goal of normalizing relations with Washington as a buffer against China and Russia, said Rachel Minyoung Lee. Who has worked as an open source enterprise analyst for the CIA for nearly two decades. This means more policies are developed to deal with chronic hardships rather than seeking diplomatic overtures, he added.
“Based on North Korea’s official announcements. And media statements since the beginning of the year. As well as its military actions in recent months. It seems unlikely that the country will return to the negotiating table in the near term,” Lee said.
“Kim expressed at the meeting his firm belief in the direction of the Korean revolution. And confidence in its invincibility,” state media reported Thursday.
Kim’s government has defied UN resolutions by launching nearly 70 ballistic missiles so far in 2022. Nearly three times more than in any other year since he took power a decade ago.
It has helped build a modern missile arsenal with solid-fuel rockets that are easy to hide.. Quick to deploy and designed to evade US defenses in the region. He is betting that will help prevent another confrontation with the United States like in 2017. When former President Donald Trump threatened “fire and fury” in response to North Korea’s weapons test. And American officials called for a “bloody nose” attack on North Korea.
Nuclear Test
Kim appears poised to conduct his first nuclear test since 2017 as he seeks to downsize warheads for strategic weapons to strike South Korea and Japan, which host most US troops in Asia. A nuclear explosion could also help boost. The power of a warhead that could attach to an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of hitting the US mainland.
“Disarmament talks don’t fit the development trends we’re seeing,” said David Schmerler. Senior research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies with the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey.
The US, South Korea and Japan have pledged tough, coordinated sanctions if Kim tests nuclear weapons. But years of sanctions and isolation have failed to sway Kim. Now there is no chance that Russia or China, who have veto power in the UN Security Council. Will support any new action against North Korea, as they did in 2017.
“Pyongyang sees no opportunity or need to improve relations with the United States or South Korea at this point. So they are raising tensions to create an excuse to conduct their seventh nuclear test,” said Lee Sang-keun, the director. strategic research at the Seoul-based Institute for National Security Strategy.
Russia, North Korea Restore Rail Trade Halted Since Early 2020
Russia may even finance North Korea by buying weapons it could use in a war against Vladimir Putin’s Ukraine, the United States has said. Pyongyang has dismissed the allegations as baseless rumours. But it has also reinstated its only train link with Russia. That was shut down nearly three years ago due to Covid-19.
Kim rejected US attempts to retrn to denuclearization talks. And brought his daughter to attend an ICBM launch in November for his state media debut – signaling that another generation is poised to take over the family dynasty. The last continuous Cold War and that his survival will depend on it.
‘Slap on the Wrist’
Kim’s propaganda machine, already in overdrive to portray the North Korean leader as caring for his people. Has issued nearly two dozen reports this year on his official Korean Central News Agency about progress on housing construction. Which it says is an expression. “Loving care” of Kim’s ruling party.
Although Kim has not met with a US president this year. “He still managed to get away with a record number of weapons tests without a slap on the wrist,” said Sue Kim, policy analyst at the Rand Corporation. Before worked in the Central Intelligence Agency.
“As Kim has had quite a productive year. He will want to carry this momentum into 2023 to make further progress in his country’s weapons development,” he said. “To its advantage, the Russia-Ukraine war and rising tensions with China have. In some ways, diverted our attention from the threat of North Korean weapons.”
