‘India a bright spot’: IMF predicts global growth to slow to 2.9%
Along with China, India will account for half of global growth this year, the IMF said. Washington: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on . Tuesday said it expects a slight slowdown in the Indian economy in the coming fiscal year and has . Projected growth to 6.1 percent from 6.8 percent in the current fiscal year ending March 31.
The IMF on Tuesday released its January update to its World Economic Outlook. Which said global growth will slow to 2.9 percent in 2023 from an . Estimated 3.4 percent in 2022, then pick up to 3.1 percent in 2024.
“In fact our growth estimate for India is unchanged from our October outlook. We have 6.8 percent growth for this current fiscal year, which runs through March. And then we expect a slight slowdown to 6.1 percent in fiscal 2023. And it is driven by external factors,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinches. Chief economist and director of the IMF’s research department, told reporters here.
Growth in India is expected to . Slow to 6.1 percent in 2023 from 6.8 percent in 2022, before reaching 6.8 percent in 2024. with resilient domestic demand despite external . Headwinds,” the IMF’s World Economic Outlook Update said.
Growth in emerging and developing Asia is expected to pick up to 5.3 percent and 5.2 percent in . 2023 and 2024, , compared to an expected . Slowdown in 2022 with China accounting for 4.3 percent, the report said.
China’s real GDP slowdown in . The fourth quarter of 2022 implies a 0.2 percentage point downgrade for. 2022 growth to 3.0 percent — China’s growth below. The global average for the first time in more than 40 years. China’s growth is projected to pick up to 5.2 percent in 2023. Reflecting accelerating momentum. And will decline to 4.5 percent in 2024 before settling. Below 4 percent in 2024 amid slowing business dynamics and. Slower progress on structural reforms.
“Omit, I would like to point out . That emerging market economies and developing economies . As a whole seem to be already on their way. We have a slight increase in growth for the region from 3.9 percent in 2022 to 4 percent in 2023,” Gourinchas said.
“Another relevant point here is that. If we look at both China and India together, they account for about 50 percent of global growth in 2023. So a very significant contribution,” he said.
“I would like to say, we had a positive outlook on India in our October forecast. That positive outlook is unchanged,” Gourinchas said in response to a question.
In a blog post he wrote that India remains a bright spot. Together with China, it will account . For half of global growth this year, versus a 10th for the United States and the euro zone, he added.
For advanced economies. The slowdown will be more pronounced, falling to 1.2 percent from 2.7 percent last year and 1.4 percent this year and next. Nine out of 10 advanced economies are likely to shrink, Gourinchas said.
US growth will slow to 1.4 percent in 2023 as Federal Reserve interest rate hikes work . Their way through the economy. Despite signs of resilience to. The energy crisis, a mild winter and generous financial support, the situation in . The euro area is more challenging, he said, adding that the European. Central Bank’s tightening of monetary policy and. A negative terms-of-trade shock — due to increases in its imported energy . Prices — we expect that this Growth will drop below 0.7 percent this year,” Gourinchas wrote.
